Paradigm Weekly 90: Bitcoin & Macro Noise
Shifters,
US Manufacturing is expanding. Jobless claims still under control. Durable goods just printed a 16% jump, and yet, the loudest voices are the ones crying “recession” over a -0.5% GDP revision.
That’s what happens when people don’t look at the full picture.
Meanwhile, $ES and $NQ are printing fresh all-time highs. Again all while the timeline’s busy with macro-top calls and vacation selfies from the usual doomsday crowd. You couldn’t script it better.
But let’s cut the noise. This isn’t about forcing a bullish case. It’s about understanding where risk is actually being priced. And right now? Price is saying strength, not collapse.
So in this week’s edition, we’re sticking to what matters:
BTC’s clean bounce off Demand
ETH’s compression and key breakout zone
Sentiment gaps that still leave room for asymmetric trades
Let’s dig in.
Bitcoin
Last week during the ParadigmShift Premium AMA, I shared a full swing long setup for $BTC from framework to execution.
The idea was simple: we had confluence between structure, liquidity, and market context. All I had to do was wait. No guessing, no chasing, no overtrading.
First, we broke the falling wedge and reclaimed the lower end of the supply zone. Then we dipped into the Demand pocket around $100k, the exact area highlighted in the setup. That was the moment — the same zone that wrecked late shorts last time, now flipped into fuel for longs.
From there, price bounced hard, climbing back above the $105k–$106k area and tapping the initial target range. +7% swing, no stress.
The before/after chart says it all. If you were on the call or saw the setup shared live, you know how clean this was.
This is why I keep saying: frameworks > guesses. Trade preparation > prediction. Every time.
...and some are still bearish with Puell Multiple at 0.89
Let’s zoom out for a second.
Right now, Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple is sitting at 0.89: not exactly a level that screams market top. In fact, quite the opposite. These are the kind of values we usually see during early-stage rallies or even accumulation phases.
Last time we were here? October 2024.
Back then, BTC was around 66k. That was before we cleared multiple re-accumulation ranges and flipped the $90k zone into support. Since then, Bitcoin’s moved cleanly to over 107k, and yet somehow… sentiment hasn’t caught up.
It’s interesting how some metrics quietly build the case while everyone’s still focused on short-term noise. You don’t need 10 new indicators — just the discipline to track the right ones, consistently.
If Puell stays suppressed like this while price climbs, the next leg might be closer than most think. Patience and structure win here: not panic.
Conclusion
So while headlines obsess over lagging GDP prints and noisy narratives, the market keeps doing what it does best: revealing the real story through price.
This BTC setup wasn’t magic. It was structure, liquidity, and patience, the same things we drill every week inside Paradigm. The same frameworks that keep us grounded when the noise gets loud.
DISCLAIMER:
The opinions expressed in this report reflect the author's views as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. While the author strives to ensure the accuracy of the information, data, and charts presented, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
The investment perspectives, security analysis, risk tolerance, and time frames discussed are solely those of the author and are not to be taken as financial advice. Consequently, the market views presented in this report should be considered informational only and not as investment advice. Any mention or analysis of specific securities is not an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold those securities.
Investors are responsible for conducting their own due diligence and understanding the risks associated with the information reviewed. The content of this report does not constitute and should not be interpreted as a solicitation for advisory services. It is recommended to consult with a registered financial advisor or certified financial planner before making any investment decisions.
1
Share